s04_r110_m5_dice_WARDEN_vs_ORACLE.txt

I hold two of them. Opening at two fives is simply true.

▸ bids two fives

current bid stands too often to call. best raise 3x1: hold 2, need 1 of 5, p=0.60.

▸ bids three ones

$ORACLE claims three ones. I hold none of them, so it needs three more from $ORACLE's five. That happens about 4% of the time. Liar.

▸ calls liar

hold 0x5. open 2x5 anyway (p=0.20): sets a false anchor.

▸ bids two fives

$ORACLE claims two fives. I hold one of them, so it needs one more from $ORACLE's four. That happens about 52% of the time. Liar.

▸ calls liar

hold 2x3. bid 2x3: needs 0 from 5 dice, p=1.0.

▸ bids two threes

Calling here loses too often. Three threes is a raise I can make honestly: I hold three of them.

▸ bids three threes

$WARDEN bid 3x3. i hold 2; needs 1 of its 5 dice, p=0.60. liar.

▸ calls liar

hold 1x4. bid 2x4: needs 1 from 5 dice, p=0.60.

▸ bids two fours

Calling here loses too often. Two sixes is the raise most likely to be true: I hold one of them and need one more from $ORACLE's two, true about 31% of the time.

▸ bids two sixes

$WARDEN bid 2x6. i hold 0; needs 2 of its 5 dice, p=0.20. liar.

▸ calls liar

I hold one of them. Opening at two sixes needs one more from $ORACLE's two, which is true about 31% of the time.

▸ bids two sixes

$WARDEN bid 2x6. i hold 0; needs 2 of its 4 dice, p=0.13. liar.

▸ calls liar

I hold one of them. Opening at two fives needs one more from $ORACLE's two, which is true about 31% of the time.

▸ bids two fives

$WARDEN bid 2x5. i hold 0; needs 2 of its 3 dice, p=0.07. liar.

▸ calls liar

I hold one of them. Opening at two sixes needs one more from $ORACLE's two, which is true about 31% of the time.

▸ bids two sixes

current bid stands too often to call. best raise 3x6: hold 2, need 1 of 2, p=0.31.

▸ bids three sixes

$ORACLE claims three sixes. I hold one of them, so it needs two more from $ORACLE's two. That happens about 3% of the time. Liar.

▸ calls liar

I hold one of them. Opening at one five is simply true.

▸ bids one five

current bid stands too often to call. best raise 1x6: hold 1, need 0 of 1, p=1.0.

▸ bids one six

$ORACLE claims one six. I hold none of them, so it needs one more from $ORACLE's two. That happens about 31% of the time. Liar.

▸ calls liar

I hold two of them. Opening at three fives needs one more from $ORACLE's five, which is true about 60% of the time.

▸ bids three fives

$WARDEN bid 3x5. i hold 1; needs 2 of its 5 dice, p=0.20. liar.

▸ calls liar

hold 2x1. bid 3x1: needs 1 from 5 dice, p=0.60.

▸ bids three ones

$ORACLE claims three ones. I hold one of them, so it needs two more from $ORACLE's four. That happens about 13% of the time. Liar.

▸ calls liar

I hold two of them. Opening at two sixes is simply true.

▸ bids two sixes

$WARDEN bid 2x6. i hold 1; needs 1 of its 4 dice, p=0.52. liar.

▸ calls liar

hold 2x1. bid 2x1: needs 0 from 4 dice, p=1.0.

▸ bids two ones

I raise to three ones. I hold one of them; this is true only about 7% of the time, but $ORACLE has to decide that, not me.

▸ bids three ones

$WARDEN bid 3x1. i hold 2; needs 1 of its 4 dice, p=0.52. liar.

▸ calls liar

hold 1x3. bid 2x3: needs 1 from 4 dice, p=0.52.

▸ bids two threes

$ORACLE claims two threes. I hold none of them, so it needs two more from $ORACLE's two. That happens about 3% of the time. Liar.

▸ calls liar

hold 1x3. bid 1x3: needs 0 from 4 dice, p=1.0.

▸ bids one three

Calling here loses too often. One four is a raise I can make honestly: I hold one of them.

▸ bids one four

$WARDEN bid 1x4. i hold 0; needs 1 of its 4 dice, p=0.52. liar.

▸ calls liar

hold 2x4. bid 2x4: needs 0 from 5 dice, p=1.0.

▸ bids two fours

Calling here loses too often. Two fives is the raise most likely to be true: I hold one of them and need one more from $ORACLE's five, true about 60% of the time.

▸ bids two fives

$WARDEN bid 2x5. i hold 0; needs 2 of its 5 dice, p=0.20. liar.

▸ calls liar

I hold two of them. Opening at two fives is simply true.

▸ bids two fives

$WARDEN bid 2x5. i hold 1; needs 1 of its 4 dice, p=0.52. liar.

▸ calls liar

hold 2x2. bid 3x2: needs 1 from 4 dice, p=0.52.

▸ bids three twos

$ORACLE claims three twos. I hold none of them, so it needs three more from $ORACLE's four. That happens about 2% of the time. Liar.

▸ calls liar

hold 2x6. bid 3x6: needs 1 from 4 dice, p=0.52.

▸ bids three sixes

$ORACLE claims three sixes. I hold none of them, so it needs three more from $ORACLE's three. That happens less than 1% of the time. Liar.

▸ calls liar

hold 1x6. bid 2x6: needs 1 from 4 dice, p=0.52.

▸ bids two sixes

$ORACLE claims two sixes. I hold none of them, so it needs two more from $ORACLE's two. That happens about 3% of the time. Liar.

▸ calls liar

hold 1x6. bid 1x6: needs 0 from 4 dice, p=1.0.

▸ bids one six

Calling here loses too often. Two sixes is a raise I can make honestly: I hold two of them.

▸ bids two sixes

$WARDEN bid 2x6. i hold 1; needs 1 of its 4 dice, p=0.52. liar.

▸ calls liar