s04_r110_m5_dice_WARDEN_vs_ORACLE.txt

actors: $WARDEN, $ORACLE
engines: scripted policy, scripted policy
game: liar's dice
season 4, round 110, bout 6. started 2026-10-02T14:41:43.758Z
ante: 0.1497 SOL each (exhibition: simulated)
result: $WARDEN wins, 2 to 1 (3 games, 20 rounds)

commitment: dc2e6b1ff22a5c15725d9985aad4f6e0ff77fb5edf331b3156d90962974f56ff
beacon:     3ddea2579381a16b30f58d4cbf70e8166b53c08c0da3387f8deb43f27aa3a9be (exhibition)
secret:     440d7781ddc2ff25d111ef3c5913400e35519ab20460249087806d3dbb97e65f
seed:       67ee2a9bccfef052b53d1dbe314e1156b97b7eefc5fa277ca9980fe6caee7d08

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00:01  -- game 1, round 1 · $WARDEN opens · dice 5 v 5
       $WARDEN [2 3 5 5 6]   $ORACLE [1 1 2 4 5]
00:07  <$WARDEN> I hold two of them. Opening at two fives is simply true.
00:07  $WARDEN bids two fives
00:15  <$ORACLE> current bid stands too often to call. best raise 3x1: hold 2, need 1 of 5, p=0.60.
00:15  $ORACLE bids three ones
00:21  <$WARDEN> $ORACLE claims three ones. I hold none of them, so it needs three more from $ORACLE's five.
       That happens about 4% of the time. Liar.
00:21  $WARDEN calls liar
00:24  -- two ones on the table: the bid of three ones was a lie. $ORACLE loses a die · 5 v 4

00:26  -- game 1, round 2 · $ORACLE opens · dice 5 v 4
       $WARDEN [1 4 4 5 6]   $ORACLE [2 3 6 6]
00:36  <$ORACLE> hold 0x5. open 2x5 anyway (p=0.20): sets a false anchor.
00:36  $ORACLE bids two fives
00:43  <$WARDEN> $ORACLE claims two fives. I hold one of them, so it needs one more from $ORACLE's four. That
       happens about 52% of the time. Liar.
00:43  $WARDEN calls liar
00:46  -- one five on the table: the bid of two fives was a lie. $ORACLE loses a die · 5 v 3

00:48  -- game 1, round 3 · $ORACLE opens · dice 5 v 3
       $WARDEN [3 3 3 4 5]   $ORACLE [3 3 6]
00:57  <$ORACLE> hold 2x3. bid 2x3: needs 0 from 5 dice, p=1.0.
00:57  $ORACLE bids two threes
01:03  <$WARDEN> Calling here loses too often. Three threes is a raise I can make honestly: I hold three of
       them.
01:03  $WARDEN bids three threes
01:14  <$ORACLE> $WARDEN bid 3x3. i hold 2; needs 1 of its 5 dice, p=0.60. liar.
01:14  $ORACLE calls liar
01:17  -- five threes on the table: the bid of three threes was good. $ORACLE loses a die · 5 v 2

01:19  -- game 1, round 4 · $ORACLE opens · dice 5 v 2
       $WARDEN [2 2 4 4 6]   $ORACLE [1 4]
01:26  <$ORACLE> hold 1x4. bid 2x4: needs 1 from 5 dice, p=0.60.
01:26  $ORACLE bids two fours
01:32  <$WARDEN> Calling here loses too often. Two sixes is the raise most likely to be true: I hold one of
       them and need one more from $ORACLE's two, true about 31% of the time.
01:32  $WARDEN bids two sixes
01:41  <$ORACLE> $WARDEN bid 2x6. i hold 0; needs 2 of its 5 dice, p=0.20. liar.
01:41  $ORACLE calls liar
01:44  -- one six on the table: the bid of two sixes was a lie. $WARDEN loses a die · 4 v 2

01:46  -- game 1, round 5 · $WARDEN opens · dice 4 v 2
       $WARDEN [2 3 5 6]   $ORACLE [1 2]
01:51  <$WARDEN> I hold one of them. Opening at two sixes needs one more from $ORACLE's two, which is true
       about 31% of the time.
01:51  $WARDEN bids two sixes
02:02  <$ORACLE> $WARDEN bid 2x6. i hold 0; needs 2 of its 4 dice, p=0.13. liar.
02:02  $ORACLE calls liar
02:05  -- one six on the table: the bid of two sixes was a lie. $WARDEN loses a die · 3 v 2

02:07  -- game 1, round 6 · $WARDEN opens · dice 3 v 2
       $WARDEN [2 3 5]   $ORACLE [1 4]
02:13  <$WARDEN> I hold one of them. Opening at two fives needs one more from $ORACLE's two, which is true
       about 31% of the time.
02:13  $WARDEN bids two fives
02:24  <$ORACLE> $WARDEN bid 2x5. i hold 0; needs 2 of its 3 dice, p=0.07. liar.
02:24  $ORACLE calls liar
02:27  -- one five on the table: the bid of two fives was a lie. $WARDEN loses a die · 2 v 2

02:29  -- game 1, round 7 · $WARDEN opens · dice 2 v 2
       $WARDEN [4 6]   $ORACLE [6 6]
02:34  <$WARDEN> I hold one of them. Opening at two sixes needs one more from $ORACLE's two, which is true
       about 31% of the time.
02:34  $WARDEN bids two sixes
02:43  <$ORACLE> current bid stands too often to call. best raise 3x6: hold 2, need 1 of 2, p=0.31.
02:43  $ORACLE bids three sixes
02:49  <$WARDEN> $ORACLE claims three sixes. I hold one of them, so it needs two more from $ORACLE's two.
       That happens about 3% of the time. Liar.
02:49  $WARDEN calls liar
02:52  -- three sixes on the table: the bid of three sixes was good. $WARDEN loses a die · 1 v 2

02:54  -- game 1, round 8 · $WARDEN opens · dice 1 v 2
       $WARDEN [5]   $ORACLE [5 6]
02:59  <$WARDEN> I hold one of them. Opening at one five is simply true.
02:59  $WARDEN bids one five
03:06  <$ORACLE> current bid stands too often to call. best raise 1x6: hold 1, need 0 of 1, p=1.0.
03:06  $ORACLE bids one six
03:14  <$WARDEN> $ORACLE claims one six. I hold none of them, so it needs one more from $ORACLE's two. That
       happens about 31% of the time. Liar.
03:14  $WARDEN calls liar
03:17  -- one six on the table: the bid of one six was good. $WARDEN loses a die · 0 v 2
03:20  -- $ORACLE takes game 1 · games 0 - 1

03:21  -- game 2, round 9 · $WARDEN opens · dice 5 v 5
       $WARDEN [4 4 5 5 6]   $ORACLE [1 1 3 3 5]
03:26  <$WARDEN> I hold two of them. Opening at three fives needs one more from $ORACLE's five, which is true
       about 60% of the time.
03:26  $WARDEN bids three fives
03:38  <$ORACLE> $WARDEN bid 3x5. i hold 1; needs 2 of its 5 dice, p=0.20. liar.
03:38  $ORACLE calls liar
03:41  -- three fives on the table: the bid of three fives was good. $ORACLE loses a die · 5 v 4

03:43  -- game 2, round 10 · $ORACLE opens · dice 5 v 4
       $WARDEN [1 2 4 4 5]   $ORACLE [1 1 4 5]
03:49  <$ORACLE> hold 2x1. bid 3x1: needs 1 from 5 dice, p=0.60.
03:49  $ORACLE bids three ones
03:56  <$WARDEN> $ORACLE claims three ones. I hold one of them, so it needs two more from $ORACLE's four.
       That happens about 13% of the time. Liar.
03:56  $WARDEN calls liar
03:59  -- three ones on the table: the bid of three ones was good. $WARDEN loses a die · 4 v 4

04:00  -- game 2, round 11 · $WARDEN opens · dice 4 v 4
       $WARDEN [3 5 6 6]   $ORACLE [1 3 5 6]
04:06  <$WARDEN> I hold two of them. Opening at two sixes is simply true.
04:06  $WARDEN bids two sixes
04:16  <$ORACLE> $WARDEN bid 2x6. i hold 1; needs 1 of its 4 dice, p=0.52. liar.
04:16  $ORACLE calls liar
04:19  -- three sixes on the table: the bid of two sixes was good. $ORACLE loses a die · 4 v 3

04:21  -- game 2, round 12 · $ORACLE opens · dice 4 v 3
       $WARDEN [1 4 5 5]   $ORACLE [1 1 3]
04:28  <$ORACLE> hold 2x1. bid 2x1: needs 0 from 4 dice, p=1.0.
04:28  $ORACLE bids two ones
04:37  <$WARDEN> I raise to three ones. I hold one of them; this is true only about 7% of the time, but
       $ORACLE has to decide that, not me.
04:37  $WARDEN bids three ones
04:46  <$ORACLE> $WARDEN bid 3x1. i hold 2; needs 1 of its 4 dice, p=0.52. liar.
04:46  $ORACLE calls liar
04:49  -- three ones on the table: the bid of three ones was good. $ORACLE loses a die · 4 v 2

04:51  -- game 2, round 13 · $ORACLE opens · dice 4 v 2
       $WARDEN [2 2 2 5]   $ORACLE [2 3]
04:58  <$ORACLE> hold 1x3. bid 2x3: needs 1 from 4 dice, p=0.52.
04:58  $ORACLE bids two threes
05:06  <$WARDEN> $ORACLE claims two threes. I hold none of them, so it needs two more from $ORACLE's two.
       That happens about 3% of the time. Liar.
05:06  $WARDEN calls liar
05:09  -- one three on the table: the bid of two threes was a lie. $ORACLE loses a die · 4 v 1

05:11  -- game 2, round 14 · $ORACLE opens · dice 4 v 1
       $WARDEN [3 3 3 4]   $ORACLE [3]
05:18  <$ORACLE> hold 1x3. bid 1x3: needs 0 from 4 dice, p=1.0.
05:18  $ORACLE bids one three
05:25  <$WARDEN> Calling here loses too often. One four is a raise I can make honestly: I hold one of them.
05:25  $WARDEN bids one four
05:36  <$ORACLE> $WARDEN bid 1x4. i hold 0; needs 1 of its 4 dice, p=0.52. liar.
05:36  $ORACLE calls liar
05:39  -- one four on the table: the bid of one four was good. $ORACLE loses a die · 4 v 0
05:41  -- $WARDEN takes game 2 · games 1 - 1

05:43  -- game 3, round 15 · $ORACLE opens · dice 5 v 5
       $WARDEN [1 3 3 4 5]   $ORACLE [1 2 3 4 4]
05:52  <$ORACLE> hold 2x4. bid 2x4: needs 0 from 5 dice, p=1.0.
05:52  $ORACLE bids two fours
05:58  <$WARDEN> Calling here loses too often. Two fives is the raise most likely to be true: I hold one of
       them and need one more from $ORACLE's five, true about 60% of the time.
05:58  $WARDEN bids two fives
06:05  <$ORACLE> $WARDEN bid 2x5. i hold 0; needs 2 of its 5 dice, p=0.20. liar.
06:05  $ORACLE calls liar
06:08  -- one five on the table: the bid of two fives was a lie. $WARDEN loses a die · 4 v 5

06:10  -- game 3, round 16 · $WARDEN opens · dice 4 v 5
       $WARDEN [1 2 5 5]   $ORACLE [1 2 3 4 5]
06:15  <$WARDEN> I hold two of them. Opening at two fives is simply true.
06:15  $WARDEN bids two fives
06:23  <$ORACLE> $WARDEN bid 2x5. i hold 1; needs 1 of its 4 dice, p=0.52. liar.
06:23  $ORACLE calls liar
06:26  -- three fives on the table: the bid of two fives was good. $ORACLE loses a die · 4 v 4

06:28  -- game 3, round 17 · $ORACLE opens · dice 4 v 4
       $WARDEN [1 1 4 6]   $ORACLE [2 2 3 4]
06:35  <$ORACLE> hold 2x2. bid 3x2: needs 1 from 4 dice, p=0.52.
06:35  $ORACLE bids three twos
06:41  <$WARDEN> $ORACLE claims three twos. I hold none of them, so it needs three more from $ORACLE's four.
       That happens about 2% of the time. Liar.
06:41  $WARDEN calls liar
06:44  -- two twos on the table: the bid of three twos was a lie. $ORACLE loses a die · 4 v 3

06:46  -- game 3, round 18 · $ORACLE opens · dice 4 v 3
       $WARDEN [2 5 5 5]   $ORACLE [5 6 6]
06:53  <$ORACLE> hold 2x6. bid 3x6: needs 1 from 4 dice, p=0.52.
06:53  $ORACLE bids three sixes
06:58  <$WARDEN> $ORACLE claims three sixes. I hold none of them, so it needs three more from $ORACLE's
       three. That happens less than 1% of the time. Liar.
06:58  $WARDEN calls liar
07:01  -- two sixes on the table: the bid of three sixes was a lie. $ORACLE loses a die · 4 v 2

07:03  -- game 3, round 19 · $ORACLE opens · dice 4 v 2
       $WARDEN [3 3 5 5]   $ORACLE [3 6]
07:12  <$ORACLE> hold 1x6. bid 2x6: needs 1 from 4 dice, p=0.52.
07:12  $ORACLE bids two sixes
07:19  <$WARDEN> $ORACLE claims two sixes. I hold none of them, so it needs two more from $ORACLE's two. That
       happens about 3% of the time. Liar.
07:19  $WARDEN calls liar
07:22  -- one six on the table: the bid of two sixes was a lie. $ORACLE loses a die · 4 v 1

07:24  -- game 3, round 20 · $ORACLE opens · dice 4 v 1
       $WARDEN [1 5 6 6]   $ORACLE [6]
07:32  <$ORACLE> hold 1x6. bid 1x6: needs 0 from 4 dice, p=1.0.
07:32  $ORACLE bids one six
07:37  <$WARDEN> Calling here loses too often. Two sixes is a raise I can make honestly: I hold two of them.
07:37  $WARDEN bids two sixes
07:48  <$ORACLE> $WARDEN bid 2x6. i hold 1; needs 1 of its 4 dice, p=0.52. liar.
07:48  $ORACLE calls liar
07:51  -- three sixes on the table: the bid of two sixes was good. $ORACLE loses a die · 4 v 0
07:53  -- $WARDEN takes game 3 · games 2 - 1

$WARDEN wins. 2 to 1.