s04_r086_m2_dice_WARDEN_vs_ORACLE.txt

I hold one of them. Opening at two sixes needs one more from $ORACLE's five, which is true about 60% of the time.

▸ bids two sixes

$WARDEN bid 2x6. i hold 0; needs 2 of its 5 dice, p=0.20. liar.

▸ calls liar

I hold two of them. Opening at three fours needs one more from $ORACLE's five, which is true about 60% of the time.

▸ bids three fours

$WARDEN bid 3x4. i hold 0; needs 3 of its 4 dice, p=0.02. liar.

▸ calls liar

I hold one of them. Opening at two fours needs one more from $ORACLE's five, which is true about 60% of the time.

▸ bids two fours

current bid stands too often to call. best raise 2x6: hold 2, need 0 of 3, p=1.0.

▸ bids two sixes

$ORACLE claims two sixes. I hold none of them, so it needs two more from $ORACLE's five. That happens about 20% of the time. Liar.

▸ calls liar

I hold one of them. Opening at two fours needs one more from $ORACLE's five, which is true about 60% of the time.

▸ bids two fours

$WARDEN bid 2x4. i hold 0; needs 2 of its 2 dice, p=0.03. liar.

▸ calls liar

I hold one of them. Opening at one six is simply true.

▸ bids one six

current bid stands too often to call. best raise 2x2: hold 2, need 0 of 1, p=1.0.

▸ bids two twos

$ORACLE claims two twos. I hold none of them, so it needs two more from $ORACLE's five. That happens about 20% of the time. Liar.

▸ calls liar

I hold two of them. Opening at two twos is simply true.

▸ bids two twos

current bid stands too often to call. best raise 3x1: hold 3, need 0 of 5, p=1.0.

▸ bids three ones

$ORACLE claims three ones. I hold none of them, so it needs three more from $ORACLE's five. That happens about 4% of the time. Liar.

▸ calls liar

I hold two of them. Opening at three ones needs one more from $ORACLE's five, which is true about 60% of the time.

▸ bids three ones

$WARDEN bid 3x1. i hold 1; needs 2 of its 4 dice, p=0.13. liar.

▸ calls liar

hold 2x2. open 4x2 anyway (p=0.13): sets a false anchor.

▸ bids four twos

$ORACLE claims four twos. I hold one of them, so it needs three more from $ORACLE's four. That happens about 2% of the time. Liar.

▸ calls liar

hold 1x5. bid 1x5: needs 0 from 4 dice, p=1.0.

▸ bids one five

Calling here loses too often. One six is a raise I can make honestly: I hold one of them.

▸ bids one six

$WARDEN bid 1x6. i hold 0; needs 1 of its 4 dice, p=0.52. liar.

▸ calls liar

hold 1x5. bid 2x5: needs 1 from 4 dice, p=0.52.

▸ bids two fives

$ORACLE claims two fives. I hold one of them, so it needs one more from $ORACLE's two. That happens about 31% of the time. Liar.

▸ calls liar

I hold one of them. Opening at one five is simply true.

▸ bids one five

$WARDEN bid 1x5. i hold 0; needs 1 of its 3 dice, p=0.42. liar.

▸ calls liar

hold 1x1. bid 2x1: needs 1 from 3 dice, p=0.42.

▸ bids two ones

$ORACLE claims two ones. I hold one of them, so it needs one more from $ORACLE's one. That happens about 17% of the time. Liar.

▸ calls liar

I hold one of them. Opening at one five is simply true.

▸ bids one five

pressure raise 2x6 (p=0.31). hands the call decision back at a worse price.

▸ bids two sixes

$ORACLE claims two sixes. I hold none of them, so it needs two more from $ORACLE's one. That happens less than 1% of the time. Liar.

▸ calls liar

hold 1x6. open 3x6 anyway (p=0.20): sets a false anchor.

▸ bids three sixes

$ORACLE claims three sixes. I hold one of them, so it needs two more from $ORACLE's five. That happens about 20% of the time. Liar.

▸ calls liar

hold 3x3. bid 4x3: needs 1 from 5 dice, p=0.60.

▸ bids four threes

$ORACLE claims four threes. I hold one of them, so it needs three more from $ORACLE's four. That happens about 2% of the time. Liar.

▸ calls liar

I hold two of them. Opening at three fours needs one more from $ORACLE's four, which is true about 52% of the time.

▸ bids three fours

$WARDEN bid 3x4. i hold 2; needs 1 of its 4 dice, p=0.52. liar.

▸ calls liar

hold 1x5. bid 2x5: needs 1 from 4 dice, p=0.52.

▸ bids two fives

$ORACLE claims two fives. I hold none of them, so it needs two more from $ORACLE's three. That happens about 7% of the time. Liar.

▸ calls liar

hold 2x5. bid 2x5: needs 0 from 4 dice, p=1.0.

▸ bids two fives

$ORACLE claims two fives. I hold none of them, so it needs two more from $ORACLE's two. That happens about 3% of the time. Liar.

▸ calls liar

I hold two of them. Opening at three fours needs one more from $ORACLE's two, which is true about 31% of the time.

▸ bids three fours

$WARDEN bid 3x4. i hold 0; needs 3 of its 3 dice, p=<0.01. liar.

▸ calls liar

I hold one of them. Opening at two sixes needs one more from $ORACLE's two, which is true about 31% of the time.

▸ bids two sixes

$WARDEN bid 2x6. i hold 1; needs 1 of its 2 dice, p=0.31. liar.

▸ calls liar

hold 1x6. bid 2x6: needs 1 from 2 dice, p=0.31.

▸ bids two sixes

Calling here loses too often. Three sixes is the raise most likely to be true: I hold two of them and need one more from $ORACLE's one, true about 17% of the time.

▸ bids three sixes

bid is at the ceiling. only move: liar.

▸ calls liar